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from Environment Institute members is helping reshape how we assess climate risk in complex, fast-changing systems.

Led by Dr Seth Westra, head of the Climate and Environmental Risk Research Initiative, and co-authored by Professor Holger Maier, the study introduces a new context-aware climate risk assessment framework designed to address the systemic complexity of climate-sensitive environments.

focused on a water resource system in the Barossa Valley, South Australia, using a six-stage process built on established risk management and climate risk assessment frameworks. This structure enabled the integration of multiple perspectives, disciplines, and data sources.

Climate risk assessments play a critical role in supporting risk management during uncertain and complex times. Their use is increasing across both government and private sectors as organisations prepare for the escalating impacts of climate change.

ound that traditional climate risk assessment approaches are no longer sufficient. As the climate landscape changes rapidly, planning and implementing adaptation strategies becomes increasingly difficult. Past approaches, such as top-down (model-driven) or bottom-up (decision-driven) methods often fail to fully capture the complexity of climate-sensitive systems.

The new framework, however, was designed to be flexible and adaptive, incorporating ongoing input and feedback to remain effective as new hazards, data, and insights emerge.

In the Barossa Valley case study, where the focus was on water security for irrigators, the dynamic system model proved valuable for testing multiple adaptation strategies.

A key strength of the framework is its emphasis on collaboration and stakeholder engagement. Involving community and stakeholder input at every stage not only broadened the discussion beyond irrigation but also influenced modelling decisions and highlighted wider environmental concerns.

This study underscores the challenges of managing climate risks under systemic complexity, while demonstrating the value of a framework that brings flexibility, inclusivity, and adaptability, qualities lacking in traditional approaches. Importantly, it can be applied beyond water resources to other climate-sensitive systems. To remain effective, however, adaptation strategies require continuous monitoring and reassessment over time.

To read more about the outcomes and research from this study,